The Academy award nominations were announced on the morning of Tuesday February 8 and are to be held in late March of this year. As always the Academy sets out to recognize the best of film and as always not all of the nominees are up to snuff. So here is your guide to seeing what will win and what should win on that night.

The Best Picture Nominees are…

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog 

West Side Story

Will Win:

Even though I would be rather disappointed, I think Kenneth Branaughs coming of age period piece Belfast is going to take top prize this year. Kenneth Branaugh is not exactly an Academy darling but he is on good terms with them, having accumulated five nominations for his directing and acting in films such as Henry V and My Week With Marilyn. Belfast is the exact type of heartwarming historical drama that the academy loves to recognize. Take films such as Green Book, Driving Ms.Daisy and A Beautiful Mind. They may be far from best picture worthy but they are able to be simple and generally crowd pleasing enough to not divide voters too much and win.

Should Win:

I would be ecstatic if best picture goes to Licorice Pizza, the fast paced comedy-drama set in the 1970s from director Paul Thomas Anderson . Licorice Pizza is tender, hilarious, and extremely original providing a shining example of all that cinema should be. It absorbs you into the San Fernando valley and allows you to have fun there while also being a nuanced exploration of a peculiar relationship. Licorice Pizza may not have the most apparent ambition or the most impactful historical themes but out of all the nominees it feels the most like a work of art created by an artist working to tell a story coming from his heart.

The Nominees for Best Director are…

Kennneth Branaugh for Belfast

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza

Will Win:

The case can be made that all of these filmmakers have a shot but it’s Jane Campion has the biggest chance for her slow paced western drama The Power of the Dog. Campion has been nominated once before for best director and even won a Best Original Screenplay Oscar for her film The Piano and has been a staple of filmmaking since even before then. She has slowly accumulated the most awards out of any director this past year, and I feel that the academy feels indebted to her due to the fact that in any other year she probably would have won for The Piano.

Should Win:

Paul Thomas Anderson’s nomination for Licorice Pizza is his third nomination for Best Director, his third nomination for Best Picture and his fifth nomination for writing. I think it’s about time we recognize him. Paul Thomas Anderosn, referred to  by his fans as PTA, stands as the most clear artistic voice of his generation and one of the best filmmakers in film history. For the past 27 years he has been making the most unique and thoughtful films of American cinema with movies ranging from, Phantom Thread, to Magnolia, to Boogie Nights. Licorice Pizza is a clear example of his filmmaking prowess. Using his unconventional style to heighten both comedy and drama and using brilliant long takes to bring unforgettable moments of cinema to the screen. I am begging the academy to give Licorice Pizza an Oscar.

The Nominees for Best Actress are…

Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Coleman for The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz for Paralel Mothers 

Nicole Kidman for Being The Ricardos

Kristen Stewart for Spencer

Will Win:

Every year the category that proves to be the hardest to predict is the Best Actress Category. Olivia Coleman and Nicole Kidman both already have Oscars in this category and Penelope Cruz won for Best Supporting Actress in 2008, so for those three actresses we know that the Academy does like them. Cruz Unfortunately  has the lowest chances in the category because of how few actors win oscars for performances in foreign languages . Jessica Chastain has got her third nomination in this category this year and she might get it simply because the Academy wants to get her win over with even though The Eyes of Tammy Faye was not a very watched film. To add to the complications is Kristen Stewart who was wonderful in Spencer but her odds are limited by the fact that she is not seen by the oscars as a prestigious actress. I think that Kristen Stewart could win but this category is mostly up in the air

Should Win:

I think Olivia Coleman is absolutely terrific in The Lost Daughter. She previously won for her hilarious role in The Favourite and was nominated last year for her heartbreaking supporting role in The Father. Her role in The Lost Daughter feels like a brilliant blend of the two. Showing a dark sense of humor blended with realistic displays of subtle emotion. She crafts such a human character that feels way more real than three of the other nominees who were actually playing people that are real. 

The Nominees for Best Actor are…

Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfeild for Tick, Tick… Boom 

Will Smith for King Richard

Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Win

This is Will Smith’s year. King Richard being a crowd pleasing Oscar-type movie, a biopic and Will Smith being three time nominee all work in his favor. His performance in King Richard is fine (far from Oscar worthy) but Will Smith is one of the greatest movie stars to ever live and the Academy sees this year as the year to give him a lifetime achievement award in the form of a best actor trophy something that happens to great actors all too much (see Paul Newman winning for The Color of Money and Al Pacino for Scent of a Woman) 

Should Win

The performance that most stands out of these nominees is Denzel Washington’s performance as the titular king in Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth. His performance is flawless bringing new depths and putting a riveting spin on one of the most performed roles in the history of acting. Denzel is one of the greatest actors of all time and it’s performances like this that earn him that title.

The nominees for Best Supporting Actor are…

Ciaran Hinds for Belfast 

Troy Kotsur for CODA

Jesse Plemmons for The Power of the Dog

J.K Simmoons for Being the Ricardos 

Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of thee Dog 

Will Win

Kodi Smit-McPhee has been the awards favorite this cycle, already taking home a Golden Globe for his strange and alluring performance as an offbeat teen that forms a troubling relationship with a cowboy that has a dangerous personality on a cattle ranch in the 1920s. Kodi Smit-McPhee has earned award after award and barrels of critical praise for his performance and that builds a strong foundation for a win.

Should Win 

As much as McPhee’s performance in The Power of the Dog is riveting, his co-star Jesse Plemmoons slightly outshines him. Plemmons’s performance as a gentle, kind cattle rancher is not as noticeable as the other performances in the movie but is just as worthy of celebration. He brings a subtlety to the role that not alot of actors possess. Plemmons is the heart of The Power of the Dog and I think that he is absolutely worthy of the Oscar

The Nominees for Best Supporting Actress are…

Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

Judi Dench for Belfast 

Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog 

Auanjane Ellis for King Ricahrd

Will Win

Ariana DeBose in West Side Story feels like the most likely contender here. The award in 1961 went to Rita Moreno for playing the same role and it’s also noteworthy that DeBose is the most talked about performance on this list. That’s  not to say that there aren’t other good performances nominated but it seems in terms of sheer buzz from audiences,  critics and the industry, DeBose is the more likely contender in this category.

Should Win 

Perhaps the most surprising nomination this year was also one of the best. Jesse Buckley is one of the most promising actors around, delivering two equally Oscar worthy performances in Wild Rose and I’m Thinking of Ending Things. In The Lost Daughter she plays the younger version of Olivia Coleman’s character in flashbacks, and she truly does everything to make you feel like these two actresses are playing the same person. 

The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are…

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Ricahrd

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World

Will Win

Belfast’s simple story and heartwarming dialogue will probably earn it an Oscar despite my dismay. It’s chances in Original Screenplay are similar to it’s chances in Best Picture. The Academy doesn’t often reward originality in the original screenplay category. Rather whatever makes them feel the best.

Should Win 

The Worst Person in the World is a must see Norwegian romantic comedy-drama that has the intellect of a college professor and the emotion of real life. The Worst Person in the Word will hit you like a freight train, it’s unconventional structure and wip smart but raw dialogue make the film the most outwardly original of the original screenplay nominees but in the end it’s the touching story being told by writers Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt that make it the best screenplay of the nominees that absolutely will stand the test of time.

The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are

CODA
Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

Will Win and Should Win:

Jane Campion’s adaptation of the Thomas Savage novel The Power of the Dog is the only clear winner here. Though the others have their merits and chances of winning it’s The Power of the Dog that is the most widely acclaimed and for very good reason. The storytelling on display carries with it great subtlety and the way the script slowly twists itself into something completely different as the movie goes on is stunning. The Power of the Dog’s turns a story of a found family on a cattle ranch in the 1920s into a razor sharp cocktail of addiction, repressed sexuality, romance and anger.